Should Exelixis' (EXEL) Upbeat 2025 Outlook and Oncology Progress Prompt a Closer Look?

• Earlier this week, Exelixis reported third-quarter 2025 earnings with revenue of US$597.76 million and net income of US$193.58 million, both up from the prior year, and raised its full-year revenue guidance while announcing a new US$750 million share repurchase program.
• Beyond strong financials, the company announced promising clinical trial updates for its oncology pipeline, including positive pivotal trial results for zanzalintinib in advanced colorectal cancer.
• We’ll explore how Exelixis’ raised 2025 revenue outlook and clinical progress may influence the company’s long-term investment narrative.

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Exelixis Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Exelixis, you need to believe the company can sustain its momentum in oncology by growing beyond its heavy reliance on cabozantinib (CABOMETYX) and successfully executing on its pipeline. The latest quarterly results, strong revenue growth, raised earnings guidance, and positive zanzalintinib trial outcomes in colorectal cancer, support the bull case, but do not remove the top near-term risk: concentrated revenue exposure to cabozantinib and potential margin pressure from discounting.

Among recent announcements, Exelixis’ new US$750 million share repurchase program stands out, underscoring management’s confidence in the business and returning capital to shareholders as pivotal trial milestones approach. This buyback could provide some support to the stock while attention remains focused on whether pipeline candidates like zanzalintinib can diversify revenue away from the company’s core franchise.

Yet, despite all the optimism, investors should also be aware of the outsized risk if cabozantinib’s exclusivity erodes faster than expected...

Read the full narrative on Exelixis (it's free!)

Exelixis' outlook anticipates $3.1 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in earnings by 2028. This is based on an annual revenue growth rate of 11.7% and an increase in earnings of $497.7 million from the current $602.3 million.

Uncover how Exelixis' forecasts yield a $44.06 fair value, a 8% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members estimate fair values for Exelixis ranging widely from US$36 to US$195.84 across 11 perspectives. With pipeline progress as the ongoing catalyst, explore these diverging opinions for fresh takes on possible future outcomes.

Explore 11 other fair value estimates on Exelixis - why the stock might be worth 12% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Exelixis Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Exelixis research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Exelixis research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Exelixis' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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