Stock Analysis

Analysts Are Updating Their Evolus, Inc. (NASDAQ:EOLS) Estimates After Its First-Quarter Results

NasdaqGM:EOLS
Source: Shutterstock

Evolus, Inc. (NASDAQ:EOLS) came out with its first-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It looks like a positive result overall, with revenues of US$59m beating forecasts by 3.5%. Statutory losses of US$0.22 per share were roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Evolus

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGM:EOLS Earnings and Revenue Growth May 10th 2024

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Evolus from seven analysts is for revenues of US$264.3m in 2024. If met, it would imply a sizeable 20% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 31% to US$0.66. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$263.5m and losses of US$0.62 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Evolus after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts held their revenue numbers steady, they also administered a moderate increase in per-share loss expectations.

The consensus price target held steady at US$22.29, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Evolus at US$27.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$16.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Evolus' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 28% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 43% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.4% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Evolus is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Evolus. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Evolus going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Evolus that you should be aware of.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Evolus is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.