The past three years for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ARWR) investors has not been profitable

If you love investing in stocks you're bound to buy some losers. But long term Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARWR) shareholders have had a particularly rough ride in the last three year. Unfortunately, they have held through a 64% decline in the share price in that time. And over the last year the share price fell 22%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted.

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

View our latest analysis for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

Over the last three years, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals' revenue dropped 11% per year. That is not a good result. The share price decline of 18% compound, over three years, is understandable given the company doesn't have profits to boast of, and revenue is moving in the wrong direction. Of course, it's the future that will determine whether today's price is a good one. We don't generally like to own companies that lose money and can't grow revenues. But any company is worth looking at when it makes a maiden profit.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. You can see what analysts are predicting for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 23% in the last year, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals shareholders lost 22%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 4% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit concerning) we think you should know about.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.