Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:APLS) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

There's been a notable change in appetite for Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:APLS) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 11% to US$42.30. Revenue of US$172m came in 4.9% ahead of expectations, although statutory earnings didn't fare nearly so well, recording a loss of US$0.54, a 19% miss. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Apellis Pharmaceuticals after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Apellis Pharmaceuticals

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Apellis Pharmaceuticals from 16 analysts is for revenues of US$816.4m in 2024. If met, it would imply a major 56% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 69% to US$1.07. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$795.6m and losses of US$1.11 per share in 2024. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrades to both revenue and loss per share forecasts for this year.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$81.38, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Apellis Pharmaceuticals analyst has a price target of US$116 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$50.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Apellis Pharmaceuticals' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 81% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 48% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Apellis Pharmaceuticals to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Apellis Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Apellis Pharmaceuticals you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.