Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY): Assessing Valuation Following New HELIOS-B Data and Upbeat Financial Results

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) shared new results from its Phase 3 HELIOS-B study of vutrisiran, with data presented at the American Heart Association meeting. The findings demonstrate consistent efficacy and safety across key patient groups. The company also reported a strong third quarter, moving from net loss to net income and raising full-year revenue guidance. This combination has caught the attention of many investors.

See our latest analysis for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals.

Alnylam’s progress on the clinical and financial fronts hasn’t gone unnoticed by the market. After a stellar year-to-date share price return of almost 90%, momentum has cooled in recent weeks, but the one-year total shareholder return still stands at a robust 59.6%. This strong longer-term performance reflects optimism around the company’s execution and pipeline milestones.

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But with shares up nearly 90% year to date and analysts raising their targets, the big question is whether Alnylam stock is actually undervalued or if future growth is already reflected in the market.

Most Popular Narrative: 5.4% Undervalued

With Alnylam’s narrative fair value set at $467.94, just above the last close of $442.70, the stage is set for debate on whether analyst optimism is justified or already priced in. Expectations about upcoming revenue growth and margin improvements make this a pivotal moment for the company.

The rapid and robust uptake of AMVUTTRA for ATTR-CM in its first full quarter post-approval, combined with near-universal first-line payer access and minimal patient out-of-pocket costs, indicates a much larger addressable market for Alnylam's RNAi therapies as diagnostics and disease awareness improve. This supports sustained double-digit revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what ambitious forecasts are embedded in this narrative's fair value? A single leap in margins and a growth trajectory more often seen in tech is baked in. One standout financial assumption could make all the difference. Are you ready to uncover the bold projections that drive this target?

Result: Fair Value of $467.94 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, if momentum slows in key launches or payer reimbursement becomes tighter, this optimistic outlook could quickly be challenged, making Alnylam’s future less certain.

Find out about the key risks to this Alnylam Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Another View: Expensive Against Industry Benchmarks

While fair value models point to Alnylam being undervalued, a look at its price-to-sales ratio tells a different story. Alnylam trades at 18.2x sales, which is much higher than the US Biotechs industry average of 10.8x and its peer average of 8.4x. Even compared to its estimated fair ratio of 15.9x, the stock appears pricey. This could raise red flags about valuation risk if growth were to slow. Is this a justified premium, or could expectations be running too high?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If you'd like to examine the numbers for yourself or put your own perspective on Alnylam's outlook, you can build your own narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Alnylam Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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