ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ACAD) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$279m were what the analysts expected, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.42 per share, an impressive 193% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the 20 analysts covering ACADIA Pharmaceuticals are now predicting revenues of US$1.20b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 49% to US$0.79 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.19b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.89 in 2026. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

View our latest analysis for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals

The consensus price target held steady at US$29.11, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic ACADIA Pharmaceuticals analyst has a price target of US$39.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$17.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 21% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 21% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than ACADIA Pharmaceuticals.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$29.11, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.