Netflix Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Netflix is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 11.4% and 9.5% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 13.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 43.3% in 3 years.

Key information

11.4%

Earnings growth rate

13.54%

EPS growth rate

Entertainment earnings growth	23.6%
Revenue growth rate	9.5%
Future return on equity	43.29%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	13 Sep 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Sep 14

Paramount's Warner Takeover Chaos Handed Netflix The Ultimate Moat

Summary Netflix is upgraded to a buy as competitive dynamics shift favorably amid PSKY’s debt-laden WBD acquisition. NFLX’s scale, recurring revenue, and strong profitability support premium valuation and potential for double-digit top-line growth. Management emphasizes monetization and pricing power, guiding for 12% revenue growth and 33.2% operating margin next quarter. Risks include potential pricing walls and competitive content, but NFLX’s balance sheet and market position offer downside support. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Narrative Update • Aug 21

NFLX: Future Returns Will Depend On Advertising Scale Despite Engagement Concerns

Analysts have lowered their average Netflix price target to $70 from about $88.66, reflecting expectations for softer revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, a higher discount rate, and a reset future P/E multiple, even as the company continues to benefit from content partnerships, advertising expansion, and large scale. Analyst Commentary Recent research around Netflix shows a split view.

Narrative Update • Aug 07

Netflix's Attention Deficit: Pricing and Ads Racing Against View-Hour Stagnation

Start with what happened, because what happened is not an opinion. After the close on Thursday, Netflix published its second quarter results.

Narrative Update • Jul 09

NFLX: Future Returns Will Rely On Scaling AI Ads Suite

Analysts have trimmed their Netflix fair value estimate slightly from about $90.80 to $88.66, reflecting lower Street price targets around $100. They continue to cite steady margin assumptions, a modestly reduced discount rate, and potential support from advertising growth, new pricing tiers, and possible M&A over time.

New Narrative • Jun 27

Netflix’s Business Quality Is Clear. The Harder Question Is Whether The Stock Is Still Cheap

Netflix is no longer being debated as a broken streaming story. The real debate now is subtler: has it already done enough to justify the valuation, or is the market still underestimating how durable the cash flow model has become?

Narrative Update • Jun 23

NFLX: Advertising Scale And Content Investments Will Support Long Term Upside

Analysts have trimmed their average Netflix fair value estimate slightly to about $114.15 from $114.56. This reflects more cautious assumptions around future price increases and user engagement, even as ad tier momentum and longer term advertising plans remain key parts of the story.

New Narrative • Jun 22

Netflix's Revenue Surge Will Hit 18% Despite Market Lows

Why Netflix continues to grow while reaching ATL’s Greg Peters has finally been left as the official Co-CEO of Netflix after Reed Hastings stepped down on June 4th leaving someone to take his place. Why this matters…… Hastings was a co-founder of Netflix.

Analysis Article • Jun 21

Netflix (NFLX) Stock Could Be 18.3% Undervalued After Proximity Media And TF1 Deals

Netflix (NFLX) is back in focus after announcing an exclusive multi year television partnership with Ryan Coogler’s Proximity Media, along with a new broadcaster deal with France’s TF1 that broadens its content approach. See our latest analysis for Netflix. These content wins come after a tough stretch for the Netflix share price, which is down 14.96% year to date and has a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 37.16%. However, the 3 year total shareholder return of 82.49% shows much...

Narrative Update • Jun 06

NFLX: Advertising Expansion Will Support Engagement And Earnings Power After Warner Bid Exit

Analysts have trimmed the blended fair value estimate for Netflix by about $4 to $138.56 as they moderate assumptions for revenue growth and profit margins, while still highlighting the potential of the expanding ads business and price increases to support long term earnings power. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are emphasizing Netflix's progress on advertising, pricing and product execution as key supports for the trimmed fair value estimate, even as some margin and growth assumptions are moderated.

Narrative Update • May 23

NFLX: Advertising Expansion And Content Focus Will Drive Long Term Upside

Netflix's analyst price target edged higher to about $115, with analysts pointing to the company's expanding advertising tier, broader ad market rollout, and focus on content and technology as key reasons for the updated fair value, along with a slightly lower assumed discount rate and P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Netflix clusters around the same core themes that underpin the updated fair value, with most commentary focusing on the advertising tier, content strategy, and the decision to walk away from a Warner Bros.

New Narrative • May 18

Netflix: Why I bought again.

I’ve owned Netflix shares before, sold last Fall after strong gains and recently bought back in after the share price dipped. What gives me confidence in Netflix’s future is one number above all others: subscriber growth.

Narrative Update • Apr 29

NFLX: Future Returns Will Hinge On Price Hikes And Warner Deal Fallout

Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for Netflix higher to $90.80 from $85.52. This reflects a mix of slightly adjusted long term growth, margin and discount rate assumptions, alongside a wide range of recent Street price target tweaks and rating changes following the latest earnings and the Warner Bros.

Narrative Update • Apr 14

NFLX: Future Returns Will Depend Heavily On Price Hikes Facing Rising Scrutiny

Netflix's updated analyst price target has shifted higher, with fair value moving from $82.54 to $85.52 as analysts factor in subscription price increases, slightly higher revenue growth expectations and a modestly higher future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Netflix reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms adjusting ratings and price targets as they reassess the impact of content investments, pricing changes and the decision to walk away from a Warner Bros.

Narrative Update • Mar 31

NFLX: Higher Pricing And Advertising Will Support Engagement After Warner Bid Exit

Netflix's analyst price targets have recently shifted as analysts factor in updated views on subscriber monetization, 2026 revenue assumptions, and a reset in expected P/E multiples following the decision to walk away from the Warner Bros. Discovery bid, while also incorporating the impact of price increases and advertising trends.

Narrative Update • Mar 17

NFLX: Walking From Warner Deal Will Refocus On Content And Efficiency

Analysts have modestly increased the blended price target for Netflix by about $2 to reflect updated views on content investment, operating efficiency and valuation multiples after the company opted out of a Warner Bros. Discovery deal.

New Narrative • Mar 04

Netflix was right to decline in raising their offer for Warner Brothers

I think everyone who is invested in the American stock market has their eyes on Netflix as of late. Especially after the company declined to raise their offer for Warner Brothers in their bidding war against Paramount Skydance.

Narrative Update • Mar 03

NFLX: Future Returns Will Be Pressured By Warner Bid Fallout

Our analyst price target for Netflix edges down by about $2 to reflect slightly lower revenue growth and P/E assumptions, even as analysts broadly view the decision to walk away from Warner Bros. assets as supportive of margins and the core streaming thesis.

Narrative Update • Feb 17

NFLX: Shares Should Benefit As Warner Asset Bid Expands Content Scale

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Netflix to $111.43 from $134.44, reflecting lower future P/E expectations around $30.78 and slightly softer revenue growth assumptions, even as they factor in marginally higher profit margins and mixed reactions to potential Warner Bros. assets and recent advertising momentum.

Narrative Update • Feb 03

NFLX: Advertising And International Expansion Will Drive Engagement Despite Warner Deal Uncertainty

Analysts have trimmed their Netflix price targets by around $31 on average, reflected in our fair value update from $1,600.00 to $144.53. They are recalibrating revenue growth expectations, applying a lower future P/E, and factoring in both recent target cuts and fresh Buy initiations that highlight advertising traction, content strength, and potential benefits from international expansion and acquisitions.

Narrative Update • Jan 20

NFLX: Future Returns Will Balance Warner Bid Risk And Advertising Progress

Analysts have trimmed their Netflix price targets by around $25 to $30 per share, reflecting a lower assumed future P/E multiple, even as they point to steady revenue growth expectations, resilient profit margins, and ongoing progress in advertising and content monetization. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Netflix highlights a mixed backdrop.

Narrative Update • Jan 06

NFLX: Future Returns Will Weigh Warner Bid Uncertainty And Advertising Momentum

Analysts have trimmed their fair value narrative for Netflix to reflect slightly lower long term revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, alongside a modestly higher future P/E multiple. Recent price target updates are clustered around stock split adjusted levels such as US$110, US$1,350, US$1,385, US$1,400 and US$1,530, as they weigh potential Warner Bros.

Narrative Update • Dec 19

NFLX: Future Performance Will Balance Warner Bid Risks And New Revenue Streams

Analysts have modestly reduced their Netflix price target to reflect a lower fair value estimate of about $86.94, driven by slightly slower expected revenue growth and a lower future P/E multiple. These factors are only partly offset by improved long term margin assumptions and a largely stock split adjusted framework.

Narrative Update • Dec 05

NFLX: Shares Should Gain As Warner Bros. Bid Shapes Content Leadership

Analysts make a marginal downward adjustment to their Netflix price target, trimming fair value by approximately $0.21 per share as slightly lower long term margin assumptions offset modestly higher revenue growth and a richer future P E multiple. Analyst Commentary Street research remains broadly constructive on Netflix, with most recent notes emphasizing resilient engagement, growing advertising ambitions, and durable pricing power, even as some caution emerges around execution risk and potential strategic moves.

Narrative Update • Nov 21

NFLX: Shares Will Strengthen As Acquisition Possibilities Create Sector Tailwinds

Analysts have revised their price target for Netflix sharply downward, from approximately $1,350 to about $135 per share. This change is due to model updates related to the recent stock split as well as evolving views on cash flow and potential acquisition risks.

Narrative Update • Nov 21

Update after NFLX Q3 2025 earnings report. Business keeps sailing even after Brazilian tax hiccup

Update following the Q3 2025 Earnings Report Tail winds Revenue increased 17.2% YoY, driven primarily by membership growth and higher pricing which was higher that the revenue I used after Q2 earnings report Company achieved highest quarterly viewing share ever All regions experienced healthy YoY revenue growth. UCAN increased 17%.

Narrative Update • Sep 04

Global Ad Tech Rollout Will Spark Future Prosperity

Analysts remain divided on Netflix as strong growth, operating leverage, and new business initiatives support higher targets for some, while valuation concerns and softer engagement metrics drive caution for others, ultimately resulting in an unchanged consensus price target of $1,350. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are raising price targets on Netflix driven by strong Q2/Q3 results, better-than-expected member growth, robust upcoming content slate (including hits like Squid Games 3), and tailwinds from new advertising and pricing initiatives.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:NFLX - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2028	62,796	18,468	16,659	17,355	33
12/31/2027	57,005	15,855	14,175	15,038	45
12/31/2026	51,221	15,266	12,868	13,300	46
6/30/2026	48,371	13,650	11,152	11,971	N/A
3/31/2026	46,890	13,374	11,894	12,650	N/A
12/31/2025	45,183	10,981	9,461	10,149	N/A
9/30/2025	43,379	10,431	8,967	9,575	N/A
6/30/2025	41,693	10,248	8,501	9,070	N/A
3/31/2025	40,173	9,270	7,446	7,938	N/A
12/31/2024	39,001	8,712	6,922	7,361	N/A
9/30/2024	37,587	7,781	7,125	7,487	N/A
6/30/2024	36,304	7,095	6,819	7,159	N/A
3/31/2024	34,932	6,435	6,946	7,308	N/A
12/31/2023	33,723	5,408	6,926	7,274	N/A
9/30/2023	32,743	4,525	5,677	6,055	N/A
6/30/2023	32,126	4,246	4,260	4,620	N/A
3/31/2023	31,909	4,200	2,934	3,282	N/A
12/31/2022	31,616	4,492	1,619	2,026	N/A
9/30/2022	31,473	5,044	717	1,179	N/A
6/30/2022	31,031	5,095	160	705	N/A
3/31/2022	30,402	5,007	-27	538	N/A
12/31/2021	29,698	5,116	-132	393	N/A
9/30/2021	28,633	5,051	151	658	N/A
6/30/2021	27,585	4,392	1,390	1,840	N/A
3/31/2021	26,392	3,759	2,464	2,944	N/A
12/31/2020	24,996	2,761	1,929	2,427	N/A
9/30/2020	23,819	2,806	645	1,103	N/A
6/30/2020	22,628	2,681	-1,056	-663	N/A
3/31/2020	21,403	2,232	N/A	-2,248	N/A
12/31/2019	20,156	1,867	N/A	-2,887	N/A
9/30/2019	18,876	1,414	N/A	-2,660	N/A
6/30/2019	17,630	1,151	N/A	-2,849	N/A
3/31/2019	16,614	1,265	N/A	-2,824	N/A
12/31/2018	15,794	1,211	N/A	-2,680	N/A
9/30/2018	14,893	1,263	N/A	-1,933	N/A
6/30/2018	13,879	990	N/A	-1,663	N/A
3/31/2018	12,757	671	N/A	-1,679	N/A
12/31/2017	11,693	559	N/A	-1,786	N/A
9/30/2017	10,884	440	N/A	-1,855	N/A
6/30/2017	10,190	362	N/A	-1,897	N/A
3/31/2017	9,510	337	N/A	-1,589	N/A
12/31/2016	8,831	187	N/A	-1,474	N/A
9/30/2016	8,176	163	N/A	-1,162	N/A
6/30/2016	7,625	141	N/A	-896	N/A
3/31/2016	7,164	127	N/A	-851	N/A
12/31/2015	6,780	123	N/A	-749	N/A
9/30/2015	6,441	163	N/A	-543	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NFLX's forecast earnings growth (11.4% per year) is above the savings rate (3.7%).

Earnings vs Market: NFLX's earnings (11.4% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (17.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: NFLX's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: NFLX's revenue (9.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NFLX's revenue (9.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: NFLX's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (43.3%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2026/09/16 01:23
End of Day Share Price	2026/09/15 00:00
Earnings	2026/06/30
Annual Earnings	2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Netflix, Inc. is covered by 83 analysts. 46 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Hannah Kleiven	Arete Research Services LLP
Andrew Charles Beale	Arete Research Services LLP
Joseph Bonner	Argus Research Company

Netflix Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Price target decreased by 13% to US$98.54

Netflix, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for Second Quarter of 2026 and Reiterates Earnings Guidance for Full-Year 2026

Price target decreased by 8.8% to US$115

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 26%

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 26%

Price target increased by 8.3% to US$1,301

Recent updates

Netflix, Inc. to Report Q3, 2026 Results on Oct 20, 2026

Paramount's Warner Takeover Chaos Handed Netflix The Ultimate Moat

Netflix Forms Streaming Alliance as Regulators Review Sports Rights Distribution Rules

Florida Sues Netflix Over Alleged Misuse of Subscriber Data and Child Privacy Concerns

Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop

Netflix Premieres Exclusive Grand Theft Auto VI Preview in New Content Collaboration

Netflix Moves Toward Live Sports and Weekly Releases With Traditional TV Partnerships

YouTube Offers Exclusive Deals to Creators to Counter Netflix Content Push

NFLX: Future Returns Will Depend On Advertising Scale Despite Engagement Concerns

Chief Financial Officer recently sold US$701k worth of stock

Netflix Secures Nearly Double Upfront TV Ad Commitments for 2026-27 Season

NFLX: Advertising Scale And New Franchises Will Support Long Term Upside

Co-CEO, President & Director recently sold US$2.0m worth of stock

10-Q Update

Netflix Announces Appointment of Kumar Kanagasabapathy to Director, Brand Partnerships, APAC

Netflix Signs $500 Million Deal to Stream The Walking Dead Universe Internationally

NFLX: Ads And Live Content Expansion Will Support Future Earnings Power

Fair value of $81.50 suggests Netflix's strong future

Netflix Acquires AI Film Startup InterPositive for $587M With Ben Affleck as Advisor

Netflix's Attention Deficit: Pricing and Ads Racing Against View-Hour Stagnation

New minor risk - Earnings quality

Price target decreased by 13% to US$98.54

Netflix Reportedly Eyes Letterboxd for Acquisition

Netflix Lands Exclusive Global Streaming Rights for MLB Home Run Derby and Key Events

Netflix in Talks to Acquire Letterboxd as User Engagement Takes Spotlight

NFLX: Future Returns Will Rely On Scaling AI Ads Suite

Netflix Joins Disney and YouTube in Bid for $2 Billion FIFA World Cup Rights

Netflix Unveils Short-Form Videos on Homepage Through Media Partnerships

Netflix Introduces Live French TV Channels Through TF1 Partnership in Streaming App

Netflix’s Business Quality Is Clear. The Harder Question Is Whether The Stock Is Still Cheap

Netflix Agrees to Acquire Radford Studio Center in Los Angeles for $400 Million

NFLX: Advertising Scale And Content Investments Will Support Long Term Upside

Netflix's Revenue Surge Will Hit 18% Despite Market Lows

Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop

Netflix (NFLX) Stock Could Be 18.3% Undervalued After Proximity Media And TF1 Deals

Netflix Stock Under Pressure as Roku Deal Loss and Leadership Change Raise Investor Questions

Netflix, Inc. to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Jul 16, 2026

Netflix Expands $25 Billion Buyback as Leadership Changes and Advertising Gains Momentum

NFLX: Advertising Expansion Will Support Engagement And Earnings Power After Warner Bid Exit

Netflix Shares Retreat Despite Revenue Growth and New Advertising Push for 2026

NFLX: Advertising Expansion And Content Focus Will Drive Long Term Upside

Moose Toys and Netflix Expand Master Toy Partnership for New Kids and Family Entertainment

Netflix: Why I bought again.

Co-CEO, President & Director recently sold US$2.4m worth of stock

NFLX: Future Returns Will Hinge On Price Hikes And Warner Deal Fallout

New minor risk - Earnings quality

First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Netflix, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 04, 2026

Netflix, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for Second Quarter of 2026 and Reiterates Earnings Guidance for Full-Year 2026

NFLX: Future Returns Will Depend Heavily On Price Hikes Facing Rising Scrutiny

Now 22% overvalued after recent price rise

Netflix Launches A Standalone App for Kids' Games

NFLX: Higher Pricing And Advertising Will Support Engagement After Warner Bid Exit

NFLX: Walking From Warner Deal Will Refocus On Content And Efficiency

Netflix, Inc. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 16, 2026

Netflix was right to decline in raising their offer for Warner Brothers

NFLX: Future Returns Will Be Pressured By Warner Bid Fallout

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 22%

NFLX: Shares Should Benefit As Warner Asset Bid Expands Content Scale

Co-CEO, President & Director recently sold US$2.3m worth of stock

NFLX: Advertising And International Expansion Will Drive Engagement Despite Warner Deal Uncertainty

Price target decreased by 8.8% to US$115

Full year 2025 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations

NFLX: Future Returns Will Balance Warner Bid Risk And Advertising Progress

NFLX: Future Returns Will Weigh Warner Bid Uncertainty And Advertising Momentum

Netflix, Inc. (NasdaqGS:NFLX) acquired Ready Player Me OÜ.

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 26%

NFLX: Future Performance Will Balance Warner Bid Risks And New Revenue Streams

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 26%