The Sherwin-Williams Company Just Missed EPS By 19%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from The Sherwin-Williams Company (NYSE:SHW), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at US$6.3b, although statutory earnings per share came in 19% below what the analysts expected, at US$3.00 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Sherwin-Williams' 24 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$23.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$10.29, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$23.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.01 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Sherwin-Williams

The consensus price target held steady at US$370, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Sherwin-Williams, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$420 and the most bearish at US$258 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Sherwin-Williams' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 5.6% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Sherwin-Williams is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Sherwin-Williams' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$370, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Sherwin-Williams analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Sherwin-Williams , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.