Stock Analysis

While Aspen Aerogels (NYSE:ASPN) shareholders have made 241% in 5 years, increasing losses might now be front of mind as stock sheds 5.8% this week

NYSE:ASPN
Source: Shutterstock

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (NYSE:ASPN) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 11% in the last month. But in stark contrast, the returns over the last half decade have impressed. We think most investors would be happy with the 241% return, over that period. To some, the recent pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a fast rise. The more important question is whether the stock is too cheap or too expensive today.

While the stock has fallen 5.8% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Aspen Aerogels

Aspen Aerogels wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

In the last 5 years Aspen Aerogels saw its revenue grow at 14% per year. That's a fairly respectable growth rate. We'd argue this growth has been reflected in the share price which has climbed at a rate of 28% per year over in that time. It's well worth monitoring the growth trend in revenue, because if growth accelerates, that might signal an opportunity. Accelerating growth can be a sign of an inflection point - and could indicate profits lie ahead. Worth watching 100%

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:ASPN Earnings and Revenue Growth May 1st 2024

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Aspen Aerogels will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Aspen Aerogels shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 159% over one year. That's better than the annualised return of 28% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Aspen Aerogels .

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Aspen Aerogels is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About NYSE:ASPN

Aspen Aerogels

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aerogel insulation products primarily for use in the energy infrastructure and sustainable insulation materials markets in the United States, Asia, Canada, Europe, and Latin America.

High growth potential with adequate balance sheet.