Stock Analysis

Further weakness as Cerus (NASDAQ:CERS) drops 13% this week, taking five-year losses to 69%

NasdaqGM:CERS
Source: Shutterstock

Cerus Corporation (NASDAQ:CERS) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 23% in the last quarter. But don't envy holders -- looking back over 5 years the returns have been really bad. In that time the share price has delivered a rude shock to holders, who find themselves down 69% after a long stretch. Some might say the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. However, in the best case scenario (far from fait accompli), this improved performance might be sustained.

Since Cerus has shed US$53m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

View our latest analysis for Cerus

Cerus wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

Over five years, Cerus grew its revenue at 22% per year. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. In contrast, the share price is has averaged a loss of 11% per year - that's quite disappointing. It's safe to say investor expectations are more grounded now. Given the revenue growth we'd consider the stock to be quite an interesting prospect if the company has a clear path to profitability.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGM:CERS Earnings and Revenue Growth March 6th 2024

If you are thinking of buying or selling Cerus stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 27% in the last year, Cerus shareholders lost 29%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 11% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Cerus that you should be aware of.

But note: Cerus may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Cerus is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.