Astrana Health (ASTH): Exploring Valuation After Prolonged Share Price Decline

Astrana Health (ASTH) shares have drifted lower by almost 17% over the past month, continuing a longer downward trend this year. Despite the lack of a headline event, investors may be considering shifting performance dynamics along with recent market sentiment.

See our latest analysis for Astrana Health.

With a 1-day share price return of -23.46% following several months of declines and a 1-year total shareholder return approaching -46%, Astrana Health's persistent selloff signals that market sentiment is firmly in reverse. However, longer-term results still show a gain for early investors. Fading momentum may indicate heightened perceived risks or shifting expectations for growth.

If you're curious how other companies are faring in this environment, now is a great time to broaden your investment radar and discover See the full list for free.

As Astrana Health's share price sits well below analyst targets, investors face a critical question: does the current low valuation signal a compelling buying opportunity, or is the market already factoring in all future risks and rewards?

Most Popular Narrative: 41.8% Undervalued

At the last close price of $25.54, the most widely followed analyst narrative sees Astrana Health’s fair value as substantially higher. The narrative’s view is based on deep sector shifts and business model changes, which set up a bold long-term growth scenario.

Continued transition to full risk, value-based care contracts (now 78% of revenue, up from 60% YoY) is driving recurring, higher-quality revenue streams and improved patient retention. This positions Astrana to benefit from rising demand for coordinated, efficient healthcare as the U.S. population ages, likely supporting both revenue growth and sustainable margin expansion over time.

Read the complete narrative.

What’s the driving force behind the valuation gap? The heart of this narrative is an ambitious projection about future profitability, powered by fast-growing revenues and increased margins. Find out exactly which future financial leaps are included in these bullish forecasts, and why they matter for today’s share price.

Result: Fair Value of $43.89 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, significant reimbursement cuts or slow integration of key acquisitions could quickly undermine these bullish assumptions and place pressure on Astrana Health's future profitability.

Find out about the key risks to this Astrana Health narrative.

Another View: Multiple-Based Valuation Sends a Warning

Looking from a different angle, the current price-to-earnings ratio for Astrana Health stands at 132.2x. This is considerably higher than both the industry average of 21.1x and the average for its immediate peers at 23.2x. Even the fair ratio, estimated at 73.4x, is far below where Astrana is trading today. Such a wide gap means investors are paying a hefty premium, signaling greater valuation risk if high growth does not materialize as anticipated. Does this premium reflect genuine future potential, or does it create a sharper downside if forecasts fall short?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Astrana Health Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to weigh up the numbers firsthand, take a few minutes to dive in and shape your own outlook. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Astrana Health research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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