Turning Point Brands (TPB) Is Up 11.4% After Modern Oral Sales Surge and Upgraded Guidance – Has The Bull Case Changed?

• Turning Point Brands announced third-quarter 2025 results, reporting US$118.98 million in sales and net income of US$21.08 million, while increasing full-year sales guidance for its Modern Oral segment and approving a regular quarterly dividend of US$0.075 per share.
• This performance was driven by very large Modern Oral sales growth and continued product innovation, as the company also expanded its buyback and at-the-market equity sale programs to support future initiatives.
• We'll review how the surge in Modern Oral sales and upgraded guidance may reshape Turning Point Brands' investment narrative.

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Turning Point Brands Investment Narrative Recap

To own Turning Point Brands stock, you need confidence in the company’s ability to sustain rapid Modern Oral sales growth while navigating regulatory and market risks. The latest quarterly results and raised guidance bolster the most important short-term catalyst, continued expansion of the Modern Oral segment, but do not remove the significant risk of regulatory headwinds or increased competition affecting margins and category growth.

Among recent updates, the decision to increase the Modern Oral segment’s full-year sales guidance stands out as the most impactful. This move reinforces a key catalyst: accelerating revenue from nicotine pouches, which now represent a meaningful share of overall business performance and are central to TPB’s evolving growth story.

However, in contrast to this momentum, investors should pay attention to how regulatory changes targeting Modern Oral products could disrupt earnings and market share if...

Read the full narrative on Turning Point Brands (it's free!)

Turning Point Brands' outlook points to $745.7 million in revenue and $100.8 million in earnings by 2028. Achieving this would require a 22.3% annual revenue growth rate and an increase in earnings of $49.7 million from current earnings of $51.1 million.

Uncover how Turning Point Brands' forecasts yield a $116.25 fair value, a 16% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members set TPB’s fair value anywhere from US$54.06 to US$158.91 across 4 different estimates. With Modern Oral sales now driving growth, future returns may hinge on how regulatory scrutiny shapes the category’s trajectory, make sure you consider a range of opinions before making up your mind.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Turning Point Brands - why the stock might be worth 46% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Turning Point Brands Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Turning Point Brands research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Turning Point Brands research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Turning Point Brands' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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