PagSeguro Digital (NYSE:PAGS): Exploring the Current Valuation After Recent Share Price Movement

PagSeguro Digital (NYSE:PAGS) shares dipped slightly today as the stock followed broader market trends, losing about 2%. The move comes without any major company-specific headline, leading investors to recalibrate expectations based on recent performance.

See our latest analysis for PagSeguro Digital.

PagSeguro Digital’s share price has bounced back strongly in 2024, with a year-to-date gain of 47.74 percent, shaking off some of last year’s volatility. Even after today’s small pullback, the momentum remains positive. However, longer-term total shareholder returns show the stock is still digging out from deeper losses in past years.

If a turnaround like this makes you wonder where else momentum may be building, now’s the perfect moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With the stock still trading at a meaningful discount to analyst price targets and rebounding sharply this year, investors are left to ask: Does PagSeguro remain undervalued, or is all that growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 15.5% Undervalued

With the latest fair value from the most popular narrative coming in at $11.21, versus a recent close of $9.47, analysts see further upside even after the sharp rebound. The difference highlights a cautiously optimistic outlook underpinned by recent performance trends and evolving sector dynamics.

Management's revised strategic plan includes targeted annual growth rates for both gross profit and earnings per share through 2029. This is viewed as a sign of management's confidence in sustainable long-term expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

What’s the real driver of that fair value estimate? It’s not just a growth rebound. The projection banks on a long runway for higher earnings and profit margins. Peek inside the full narrative to see the hidden assumptions that push PagSeguro’s valuation above the current market price.

Result: Fair Value of $11.21 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, higher interest rates or stronger competition from alternatives like PIX could quickly challenge today's optimistic outlook for PagSeguro Digital's rebound.

Find out about the key risks to this PagSeguro Digital narrative.

Build Your Own PagSeguro Digital Narrative

If you think the story could look different with your own analysis, or want to dig into the data your way, you can craft a fresh perspective in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding PagSeguro Digital.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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