A Fresh Look at MSCI’s Valuation Following Strong Results and New Share Buyback Program

MSCI (MSCI) just unveiled a new share repurchase program and posted strong third-quarter numbers. The company reported meaningful revenue and net income growth compared to last year. These moves have turned some heads among investors this week.

See our latest analysis for MSCI.

After a year marked by steady execution and headline-worthy repurchases, MSCI's 6.6% share price return over the past 90 days suggests renewed momentum may be building, even though its one-year total shareholder return is down slightly at -0.7%. Recent moves, such as a new buyback program and a completed bond offering, signal management’s upbeat stance and a possible shift in how the market values MSCI’s growth prospects.

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With shares rallying and another round of buybacks in play, the question now is whether MSCI is trading below its underlying value or if recent gains mean the market has already factored in its future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 11% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value at $655.06 and MSCI’s last close at $582.85, the narrative points to notable upside driven by aggressive margin and earnings growth assumptions.

Innovation and cross-selling of proprietary data and tools are strengthening pricing power, revenue diversification, and long-term margin expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what’s fueling this optimism? The narrative hinges on projections of widening profit margins and rising recurring revenue, along with a bold belief in sustained top-line growth. Dive deeper to uncover the underlying growth bets, profit forecasts and the exact financial mechanics that could justify such a premium fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $655.06 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, slowing growth in Sustainability products and increased competition could pose challenges to MSCI’s earnings momentum and premium valuation in the future.

Find out about the key risks to this MSCI narrative.

Another View: What Do Earnings Multiples Say?

Looking from a different angle, MSCI’s price-to-earnings ratio sits at 35.8x, noticeably above both its industry average of 24.4x and the peer average of 31x. This premium could signal heightened expectations or suggest valuation risk if growth fails to meet forecasts, especially with a fair ratio closer to 16.6x. Is the market leaning too far into future optimism?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own MSCI Narrative

If you have a different take or want to draw your own insights from the numbers, you can build a personalized MSCI story in under three minutes, so why not Do it your way

A great starting point for your MSCI research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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