Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) Is Down 8.5% After Q3 Miss and Rising Delinquencies Are Revealed

• Arbor Realty Trust recently announced disappointing third quarter results, reporting US$4.19 million in sales and US$48.81 million in net income amid higher delinquencies and a revenue miss, while affirming a US$0.30 per share dividend for the quarter ended September 30, 2025.
• Management indicated that earnings volatility was driven by accelerated efforts to resolve legacy, nonperforming loans, with ongoing concerns about rising credit loss provisions and the sustainability of the company's high dividend yield.
• We'll explore how elevated loan delinquencies and temporary net interest income reductions could affect Arbor Realty Trust's investment outlook.

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Arbor Realty Trust Investment Narrative Recap

Being a shareholder in Arbor Realty Trust requires confidence in its ability to resolve nonperforming loans and sustain high dividend payouts, despite current earnings volatility. The recent earnings miss and higher delinquencies directly affect the key short-term catalyst, progress in asset resolution, and raise concern about the biggest risk: the durability of the company’s above-average dividend yield. For now, these developments remain material, contributing to uncertainty around near-term income and credit quality.

Among recent announcements, the reaffirmation of Arbor Realty Trust’s US$0.30 per share quarterly dividend stands out. This decision underscores management’s commitment to shareholder returns at a time of rising credit loss provisions and elevated delinquencies, but also draws attention to whether coverage levels can be maintained if challenges persist with legacy assets. Yet, the contrast between current payouts and future risks gives investors a reason to watch closely as conditions evolve.

In contrast, uncertainties around dividend sustainability, especially with elevated delinquencies, are something investors should be aware of if they are relying on...

Read the full narrative on Arbor Realty Trust (it's free!)

Arbor Realty Trust is expected to generate $227.2 million in revenue and $219.3 million in earnings by 2028. This reflects a forecasted annual revenue decline of 28.7% and a decrease in earnings of $4 million from current earnings of $223.3 million.

Uncover how Arbor Realty Trust's forecasts yield a $12.00 fair value, a 30% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members submitted nine fair value estimates ranging from US$1.88 to US$16.29 per share. With delinquencies now affecting net income, these varied viewpoints highlight how opinions can differ on Arbor Realty Trust’s future; comparing several perspectives can help inform your own outlook.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Arbor Realty Trust - why the stock might be worth as much as 76% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Arbor Realty Trust Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Arbor Realty Trust research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Arbor Realty Trust research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Arbor Realty Trust's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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