Janus International Group, Inc. Just Missed EPS By 28%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Janus International Group, Inc. (NYSE:JBI), which a week ago released some disappointing third-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$219m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 28%, coming in at just US$0.11 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Janus International Group's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$895.1m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 55% to US$0.52. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$915.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.72 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for Janus International Group

The consensus price target fell 13% to US$9.90, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Janus International Group analyst has a price target of US$12.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$8.50. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Janus International Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 9.2% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Janus International Group.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Janus International Group. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Janus International Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Janus International Group (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.