Generac Holdings Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Generac Holdings Inc. (NYSE:GNRC), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its third-quarter results last week. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$1.1b revenue coming in 6.6% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.12 missed the mark badly, arriving some 43% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Generac Holdings after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Generac Holdings' 19 analysts is for revenues of US$4.76b in 2026. This reflects a notable 9.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 30% to US$6.93. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$4.78b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.13 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for Generac Holdings

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$207, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Generac Holdings analyst has a price target of US$250 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$172. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Generac Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 7.5% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 8.0% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that Generac Holdings is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Generac Holdings. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Generac Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Generac Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Generac Holdings' balance sheet, and whether we think Generac Holdings is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.