Willis Lease Finance Corporation Just Beat Revenue Estimates By 18%

Willis Lease Finance Corporation (NASDAQ:WLFC) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. Willis Lease Finance delivered a significant beat with revenue hitting US$183m and statutory EPS reaching US$3.25, both beating estimates by more than 10%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analyst is forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimate suggests is in store for next year.

We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

Taking into account the latest results, the solitary analyst covering Willis Lease Finance provided consensus estimates of US$643.0m revenue in 2026, which would reflect a discernible 4.7% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 24% to US$13.08 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analyst had been modelling revenues of US$666.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$12.04 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, the analyst is now more bullish on the company's earnings power.

View our latest analysis for Willis Lease Finance

The consensus price target fell 16% to US$160, with the analyst signalling that the weaker revenue outlook was a more powerful indicator than the upgraded EPS forecasts.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Willis Lease Finance's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.7% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 21% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.7% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Willis Lease Finance is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Willis Lease Finance's earnings potential next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analyst seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Willis Lease Finance's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Willis Lease Finance. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have analyst estimates for Willis Lease Finance going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Willis Lease Finance (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) .

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.