Earnings Beat: Hudson Technologies, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

There's been a major selloff in Hudson Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:HDSN) shares in the week since it released its quarterly report, with the stock down 23% to US$5.88. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$62m, statutory earnings beat expectations 7.9%, with Hudson Technologies reporting profits of US$0.17 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Hudson Technologies

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from four analysts covering Hudson Technologies is for revenues of US$239.0m in 2025. This implies a noticeable 3.4% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 35% to US$0.44 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$286.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.87 in 2025. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a real cut to revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

The consensus price target fell 28% to US$7.31, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Hudson Technologies analyst has a price target of US$8.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Hudson Technologies' past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.7% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 16% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.4% per year. It's pretty clear that Hudson Technologies' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hudson Technologies. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Hudson Technologies' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Hudson Technologies. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Hudson Technologies analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Hudson Technologies (1 can't be ignored) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.