Is China Airlines, Ltd.'s (TWSE:2610) Stock's Recent Performance Being Led By Its Attractive Financial Prospects?

China Airlines (TWSE:2610) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 27% over the last three months. Since the market usually pay for a company’s long-term fundamentals, we decided to study the company’s key performance indicators to see if they could be influencing the market. Specifically, we decided to study China Airlines' ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

See our latest analysis for China Airlines

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for China Airlines is:

13% = NT$11b ÷ NT$87b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. That means that for every NT$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated NT$0.13 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

China Airlines' Earnings Growth And 13% ROE

To begin with, China Airlines seems to have a respectable ROE. Be that as it may, the company's ROE is still quite lower than the industry average of 21%. However, we are pleased to see the impressive 43% net income growth reported by China Airlines over the past five years. Therefore, there could be other causes behind this growth. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio. Bear in mind, the company does have a respectable ROE. It is just that the industry ROE is higher. So this also does lend some color to the high earnings growth seen by the company.

As a next step, we compared China Airlines' net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 34%.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about China Airlines''s valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is China Airlines Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

China Airlines' three-year median payout ratio is a pretty moderate 48%, meaning the company retains 52% of its income. This suggests that its dividend is well covered, and given the high growth we discussed above, it looks like China Airlines is reinvesting its earnings efficiently.

Additionally, China Airlines has paid dividends over a period of nine years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 63% over the next three years. Therefore, the expected rise in the payout ratio explains why the company's ROE is expected to decline to 8.7% over the same period.

Summary

In total, we are pretty happy with China Airlines' performance. In particular, it's great to see that the company has seen significant growth in its earnings backed by a respectable ROE and a high reinvestment rate. Having said that, the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.