Earnings Miss: ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC. Missed EPS By 22% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC. (TWSE:8150), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of NT$5.8b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 22% to hit NT$0.62 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES

Following the latest results, ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES' four analysts are now forecasting revenues of NT$24.0b in 2024. This would be a reasonable 6.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to drop 10% to NT$2.41 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of NT$24.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of NT$3.51 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at NT$51.50, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at NT$55.00 and the most bearish at NT$44.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.1% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 16% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.