TSEC Corporation's (TWSE:6443) 25% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

TSEC Corporation (TWSE:6443) shares have had a horrible month, losing 25% after a relatively good period beforehand. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 20% share price drop.

Although its price has dipped substantially, TSEC's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 33.4x might still make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Taiwan, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 22x and even P/E's below 15x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

TSEC has been doing a decent job lately as it's been growing earnings at a reasonable pace. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this good earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for TSEC

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on TSEC's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For TSEC?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like TSEC's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 3.5% last year. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 64% overall rise in EPS, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 23% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

With this information, we find it concerning that TSEC is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From TSEC's P/E?

TSEC's P/E hasn't come down all the way after its stock plunged. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that TSEC currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for TSEC that we have uncovered.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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