Does Excelsior Biopharma Inc.'s (GTSM:6496) Weak Fundamentals Mean A Downturn In Its Stock Should Be Expected?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
April 23, 2021
TPEX:6496

Excelsior Biopharma's (GTSM:6496) stock up by 7.3% over the past three months. Given that the markets usually pay for the long-term financial health of a company, we wonder if the current momentum in the share price will keep up, given that the company's financials don't look very promising. Specifically, we decided to study Excelsior Biopharma's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

See our latest analysis for Excelsior Biopharma

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Excelsior Biopharma is:

2.8% = NT$35m ÷ NT$1.3b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2020).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. That means that for every NT$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated NT$0.03 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Excelsior Biopharma's Earnings Growth And 2.8% ROE

It is quite clear that Excelsior Biopharma's ROE is rather low. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 8.5%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 16% seen by Excelsior Biopharma over the last five years is not surprising. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For example, the business has allocated capital poorly, or that the company has a very high payout ratio.

That being said, we compared Excelsior Biopharma's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 9.4% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
GTSM:6496 Past Earnings Growth April 24th 2021

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about Excelsior Biopharma's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Excelsior Biopharma Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

With a high three-year median payout ratio of 78% (implying that 22% of the profits are retained), most of Excelsior Biopharma's profits are being paid to shareholders, which explains the company's shrinking earnings. The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run. You can see the 4 risks we have identified for Excelsior Biopharma by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.

In addition, Excelsior Biopharma has been paying dividends over a period of six years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is preferred by the management even though earnings have been in decline.

Summary

Overall, we would be extremely cautious before making any decision on Excelsior Biopharma. As a result of its low ROE and lack of mich reinvestment into the business, the company has seen a disappointing earnings growth rate. So far, we've only made a quick discussion around the company's earnings growth. So it may be worth checking this free detailed graph of Excelsior Biopharma's past earnings, as well as revenue and cash flows to get a deeper insight into the company's performance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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