Singapore Airlines Limited's (SGX:C6L) Fundamentals Look Pretty Strong: Could The Market Be Wrong About The Stock?

Singapore Airlines (SGX:C6L) has had a rough month with its share price down 16%. But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. In this article, we decided to focus on Singapore Airlines' ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

Check out our latest analysis for Singapore Airlines

How Is ROE Calculated?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Singapore Airlines is:

16% = S$2.7b ÷ S$17b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every SGD1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of SGD0.16.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Singapore Airlines' Earnings Growth And 16% ROE

At first glance, Singapore Airlines seems to have a decent ROE. Be that as it may, the company's ROE is still quite lower than the industry average of 21%. That being the case, the significant five-year 38% net income growth reported by Singapore Airlines comes as a pleasant surprise. We reckon that there could be other factors at play here. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently. Bear in mind, the company does have a respectable ROE. It is just that the industry ROE is higher. So this certainly also provides some context to the high earnings growth seen by the company.

We then compared Singapore Airlines' net income growth with the industry and we're pleased to see that the company's growth figure is higher when compared with the industry which has a growth rate of 14% in the same 5-year period.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Singapore Airlines is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Singapore Airlines Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Singapore Airlines' significant three-year median payout ratio of 78% (where it is retaining only 22% of its income) suggests that the company has been able to achieve a high growth in earnings despite returning most of its income to shareholders.

Additionally, Singapore Airlines has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 50% over the next three years. Regardless, the future ROE for Singapore Airlines is predicted to decline to 8.9% despite the anticipated decrease in the payout ratio. We reckon that there could probably be other factors that could be driving the forseen decline in the company's ROE.

Summary

On the whole, we do feel that Singapore Airlines has some positive attributes. Specifically, its respectable ROE which likely led to the considerable growth in earnings. Yet, the company is retaining a small portion of its profits. Which means that the company has been able to grow its earnings in spite of it, so that's not too bad. With that said, on studying the latest analyst forecasts, we found that while the company has seen growth in its past earnings, analysts expect its future earnings to shrink. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.