Stock Analysis

Hour Glass' (SGX:AGS) 27% CAGR outpaced the company's earnings growth over the same five-year period

SGX:AGS
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It hasn't been the best quarter for The Hour Glass Limited (SGX:AGS) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 16% in that time. But that scarcely detracts from the really solid long term returns generated by the company over five years. Indeed, the share price is up an impressive 171% in that time. Generally speaking the long term returns will give you a better idea of business quality than short periods can. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it's cheap now.

The past week has proven to be lucrative for Hour Glass investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's five-year performance.

Check out our latest analysis for Hour Glass

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over half a decade, Hour Glass managed to grow its earnings per share at 30% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 22% over the same period. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 6.70.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SGX:AGS Earnings Per Share Growth November 8th 2023

This free interactive report on Hour Glass' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Hour Glass' TSR for the last 5 years was 229%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 3.8% in the last year, Hour Glass shareholders lost 12% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 27% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Hour Glass better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Hour Glass has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

We will like Hour Glass better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Singaporean exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Hour Glass is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.