Revenue Miss: Thai Beverage Public Company Limited Fell 6.1% Short Of Analyst Revenue Estimates And Analysts Have Been Revising Their Models

Thai Beverage Public Company Limited (SGX:Y92) came out with its half-year results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at ฿131b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at ฿0.57 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Thai Beverage

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Thai Beverage's 15 analysts is for revenues of ฿262.9b in 2021, which would reflect a satisfactory 5.5% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 11% to ฿1.05. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ฿264.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of ฿1.05 in 2021. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at ฿20.94. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Thai Beverage at ฿1.18 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ฿0.79. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Thai Beverage's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 11% annualised growth to the end of 2021 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 8.9% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Thai Beverage is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to sales forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at ฿20.94, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Thai Beverage. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Thai Beverage analysts - going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Thai Beverage has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.

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