Axfood AB (publ)

OM:AXFO Stock Report

Market Cap: SEK 60.1b

Axfood Valuation

Is AXFO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AXFO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AXFO (SEK278.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK581.2)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AXFO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AXFO?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

AXFO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA14.9x
PEG Ratio3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AXFO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AXFO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.7x
FIVE X5 Retail Group
5.7xn/aUS$6.0b
EDV Endeavour Group
17.2x4.2%AU$9.0b
2651 Lawson
19.8x3.0%JP¥1.0t
MGNT Magnit
7.9x27.1%₽435.4b
AXFO Axfood
24.6x8.2%SEK 60.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AXFO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.6x) compared to the peer average (14.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AXFO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Retailing Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.5%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.5%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AXFO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.6x) compared to the European Consumer Retailing industry average (14.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AXFO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AXFO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24.6x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AXFO's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AXFO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentSEK 278.40
SEK 285.00
+2.4%
9.7%SEK 330.00SEK 250.00n/a5
Jun ’25SEK 278.70
SEK 293.00
+5.1%
9.5%SEK 330.00SEK 250.00n/a5
May ’25SEK 285.40
SEK 293.00
+2.7%
9.5%SEK 330.00SEK 250.00n/a5
Apr ’25SEK 311.20
SEK 290.00
-6.8%
10.6%SEK 330.00SEK 245.00n/a5
Mar ’25SEK 290.00
SEK 288.00
-0.7%
9.9%SEK 320.00SEK 245.00n/a5
Feb ’25SEK 281.90
SEK 283.00
+0.4%
11.3%SEK 320.00SEK 230.00n/a5
Jan ’25SEK 273.00
SEK 277.00
+1.5%
12.6%SEK 315.00SEK 230.00n/a5
Dec ’24SEK 262.30
SEK 271.00
+3.3%
11.1%SEK 300.00SEK 230.00n/a5
Nov ’24SEK 250.00
SEK 274.00
+9.6%
11.7%SEK 300.00SEK 230.00n/a5
Oct ’24SEK 250.40
SEK 267.50
+6.8%
12.2%SEK 300.00SEK 230.00n/a4
Sep ’24SEK 266.50
SEK 272.50
+2.3%
10.3%SEK 300.00SEK 230.00n/a4
Aug ’24SEK 267.70
SEK 272.50
+1.8%
10.3%SEK 300.00SEK 230.00n/a4
Jul ’24SEK 228.20
SEK 258.75
+13.4%
12.8%SEK 300.00SEK 215.00SEK 278.404
Jun ’24SEK 235.60
SEK 263.75
+11.9%
11.9%SEK 300.00SEK 215.00SEK 278.704
May ’24SEK 254.20
SEK 257.50
+1.3%
9.9%SEK 280.00SEK 215.00SEK 285.404
Apr ’24SEK 253.20
SEK 257.50
+1.7%
9.9%SEK 280.00SEK 215.00SEK 311.204
Mar ’24SEK 245.90
SEK 256.25
+4.2%
10.0%SEK 280.00SEK 215.00SEK 290.004
Feb ’24SEK 253.30
SEK 275.00
+8.6%
5.9%SEK 295.00SEK 255.00SEK 281.903
Jan ’24SEK 285.90
SEK 293.75
+2.7%
13.3%SEK 360.00SEK 260.00SEK 273.004
Dec ’23SEK 286.50
SEK 293.75
+2.5%
13.3%SEK 360.00SEK 260.00SEK 262.304
Nov ’23SEK 269.60
SEK 293.75
+9.0%
13.3%SEK 360.00SEK 260.00SEK 250.004
Oct ’23SEK 254.90
SEK 311.25
+22.1%
11.5%SEK 360.00SEK 260.00SEK 250.404
Sep ’23SEK 320.00
SEK 312.50
-2.3%
13.1%SEK 360.00SEK 250.00SEK 266.504
Aug ’23SEK 323.40
SEK 303.75
-6.1%
10.8%SEK 335.00SEK 250.00SEK 267.704
Jul ’23SEK 300.80
SEK 298.00
-0.9%
11.8%SEK 327.00SEK 240.00SEK 228.204

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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