Is It Smart To Buy Axfood AB (publ) (STO:AXFO) Before It Goes Ex-Dividend?

Readers hoping to buy Axfood AB (publ) (STO:AXFO) for its dividend will need to make their move shortly, as the stock is about to trade ex-dividend. The ex-dividend date is usually set to be one business day before the record date which is the cut-off date on which you must be present on the company's books as a shareholder in order to receive the dividend. The ex-dividend date is of consequence because whenever a stock is bought or sold, the trade takes at least two business day to settle. This means that investors who purchase Axfood's shares on or after the 21st of March will not receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 27th of March.

The company's next dividend payment will be kr04.25 per share, on the back of last year when the company paid a total of kr8.50 to shareholders. Based on the last year's worth of payments, Axfood stock has a trailing yield of around 2.8% on the current share price of kr0298.30. We love seeing companies pay a dividend, but it's also important to be sure that laying the golden eggs isn't going to kill our golden goose! That's why we should always check whether the dividend payments appear sustainable, and if the company is growing.

See our latest analysis for Axfood

Dividends are typically paid out of company income, so if a company pays out more than it earned, its dividend is usually at a higher risk of being cut. Its dividend payout ratio is 78% of profit, which means the company is paying out a majority of its earnings. The relatively limited profit reinvestment could slow the rate of future earnings growth. It could become a concern if earnings started to decline. A useful secondary check can be to evaluate whether Axfood generated enough free cash flow to afford its dividend. Thankfully its dividend payments took up just 46% of the free cash flow it generated, which is a comfortable payout ratio.

It's positive to see that Axfood's dividend is covered by both profits and cash flow, since this is generally a sign that the dividend is sustainable, and a lower payout ratio usually suggests a greater margin of safety before the dividend gets cut.

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Businesses with strong growth prospects usually make the best dividend payers, because it's easier to grow dividends when earnings per share are improving. Investors love dividends, so if earnings fall and the dividend is reduced, expect a stock to be sold off heavily at the same time. This is why it's a relief to see Axfood earnings per share are up 8.1% per annum over the last five years. While earnings have been growing at a credible rate, the company is paying out a majority of its earnings to shareholders. If management lifts the payout ratio further, we'd take this as a tacit signal that the company's growth prospects are slowing.

Many investors will assess a company's dividend performance by evaluating how much the dividend payments have changed over time. Axfood has delivered 8.5% dividend growth per year on average over the past 10 years. We're glad to see dividends rising alongside earnings over a number of years, which may be a sign the company intends to share the growth with shareholders.

To Sum It Up

Has Axfood got what it takes to maintain its dividend payments? While earnings per share growth has been modest, Axfood's dividend payouts are around an average level; without a sharp change in earnings we feel that the dividend is likely somewhat sustainable. Pleasingly the company paid out a conservatively low percentage of its free cash flow. While it does have some good things going for it, we're a bit ambivalent and it would take more to convince us of Axfood's dividend merits.

Ever wonder what the future holds for Axfood? See what the five analysts we track are forecasting, with this visualisation of its historical and future estimated earnings and cash flow

If you're in the market for strong dividend payers, we recommend checking our selection of top dividend stocks.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.