Stock Analysis

Nilörngruppen (STO:NIL B) jumps 12% this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind three-year shareholder returns

OM:NIL B
Source: Shutterstock

By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you choose individual stocks with prowess, you can make superior returns. For example, Nilörngruppen AB (STO:NIL B) shareholders have seen the share price rise 63% over three years, well in excess of the market return (3.3%, not including dividends).

Since it's been a strong week for Nilörngruppen shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.

Check out our latest analysis for Nilörngruppen

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Nilörngruppen was able to grow its EPS at 18% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. Notably, the 18% average annual share price gain matches up nicely with the EPS growth rate. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
OM:NIL B Earnings Per Share Growth October 30th 2023

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Nilörngruppen, it has a TSR of 88% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Nilörngruppen had a tough year, with a total loss of 17% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 1.4%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 1.2% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Nilörngruppen better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Nilörngruppen has 3 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Swedish exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Nilörngruppen might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

Access Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.