AQ Group AB (publ)'s (STO:AQ) Shares May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon

AQ Group AB (publ)'s (STO:AQ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 25.4x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Sweden, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 22x and even P/E's below 14x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

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AQ Group hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

AQ Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 1.9%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 92% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 8.7% each year as estimated by the three analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 18% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that AQ Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On AQ Group's P/E

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that AQ Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. Our free balance sheet analysis for AQ Group with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on AQ Group, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.