Stock Analysis

Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Q.P.S.C (DSM:MPHC) investors are sitting on a loss of 12% if they invested a year ago

DSM:MPHC
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The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. Unfortunately the Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Q.P.S.C. (DSM:MPHC) share price slid 17% over twelve months. That's disappointing when you consider the market declined 1.4%. Zooming out, the stock is down 15% in the last three years.

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

View our latest analysis for Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Q.P.S.C

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Unfortunately Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Q.P.S.C reported an EPS drop of 40% for the last year. This fall in the EPS is significantly worse than the 17% the share price fall. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have expected earnings to drop faster.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
DSM:MPHC Earnings Per Share Growth February 9th 2024

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Q.P.S.C's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Q.P.S.C's TSR for the last 1 year was -12%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Q.P.S.C shareholders are down 12% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 1.4%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 6% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Q.P.S.C you should know about.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Qatari exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Q.P.S.C is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.