Stock Analysis

The five-year underlying earnings growth at Corticeira Amorim S.G.P.S (ELI:COR) is promising, but the shareholders are still in the red over that time

ENXTLS:COR
Source: Shutterstock

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Corticeira Amorim, S.G.P.S., S.A. (ELI:COR), since the last five years saw the share price fall 15%.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

See our latest analysis for Corticeira Amorim S.G.P.S

SWOT Analysis for Corticeira Amorim S.G.P.S

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded its 5-year average.
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Packaging industry.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Packaging market.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Portuguese market.
  • Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
Threat
  • Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the Portuguese market.

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, Corticeira Amorim S.G.P.S actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 6.4% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

It is unusual to see such modest share price growth in the face of sustained EPS improvements. We can look to other metrics to try to understand the situation better.

Revenue is actually up 6.2% over the time period. So it seems one might have to take closer look at the fundamentals to understand why the share price languishes. After all, there may be an opportunity.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ENXTLS:COR Earnings and Revenue Growth June 24th 2023

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. If you are thinking of buying or selling Corticeira Amorim S.G.P.S stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Corticeira Amorim S.G.P.S' TSR for the last 5 years was -3.1%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Corticeira Amorim S.G.P.S shareholders are down 5.7% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 0.9%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 0.6% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. Before forming an opinion on Corticeira Amorim S.G.P.S you might want to consider these 3 valuation metrics.

But note: Corticeira Amorim S.G.P.S may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Portuguese exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Corticeira Amorim S.G.P.S is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.