Geotrans S.A.'s (WSE:GTS) Business Is Trailing The Market But Its Shares Aren't

Geotrans S.A.'s (WSE:GTS) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20.7x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Poland, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 11x and even P/E's below 7x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Geotrans over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Geotrans

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Geotrans' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For Geotrans?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Geotrans' to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 20%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 73% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 16% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Geotrans is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Geotrans revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 3 warning signs for Geotrans (2 don't sit too well with us!) that we have uncovered.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.