Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Genesis Energy Limited (NZSE:GNE) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Genesis Energy
What Is Genesis Energy's Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Genesis Energy had NZ$1.22b in debt in December 2020; about the same as the year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of NZ$81.3m, its net debt is less, at about NZ$1.14b.
How Healthy Is Genesis Energy's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Genesis Energy had liabilities of NZ$520.6m falling due within a year, and liabilities of NZ$1.94b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of NZ$81.3m and NZ$206.8m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by NZ$2.17b.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of NZ$3.60b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Genesis Energy's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Genesis Energy's debt is 3.0 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 3.4 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. The good news is that Genesis Energy grew its EBIT a smooth 59% over the last twelve months. Like the milk of human kindness that sort of growth increases resilience, making the company more capable of managing debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Genesis Energy can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Genesis Energy actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.
Our View
Genesis Energy's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its interest cover. We would also note that Electric Utilities industry companies like Genesis Energy commonly do use debt without problems. Looking at all the aforementioned factors together, it strikes us that Genesis Energy can handle its debt fairly comfortably. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 3 warning signs with Genesis Energy (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About NZSE:GNE
Genesis Energy
Generates, trades in, and sells electricity to residential and business customers in New Zealand.
Mediocre balance sheet second-rate dividend payer.