Is Harvest Volume Growth and Volatile Profits Reshaping the Investment Story for SalMar (OB:SALM)?

• SalMar ASA recently reported its third-quarter 2025 results, with sales rising to NOK 7,752 million and net income at NOK 305 million, alongside updated production guidance indicating harvest volume growth for 2025 and 2026.
• While quarterly profits increased compared to the previous year, the nine-month net income showed a sharp drop, highlighting variability in earnings despite the expanded production outlook.
• We'll now examine how SalMar's newly raised harvest volume expectations may shape its future investment narrative and sector outlook.

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SalMar Investment Narrative Recap

To be a SalMar shareholder, you need to believe that its push for higher harvest volumes and operational efficiencies will offset recent margin pressures and earnings variability. The latest news, stronger quarterly profits but weaker year-to-date net income, doesn’t materially change the biggest short-term catalyst: meeting aggressive production targets, nor does it fully resolve the current risk from volatile biological and environmental conditions that continue to impact costs and fish quality.

The company’s recent guidance projecting a 19% increase in total harvest volume for 2025 and further growth into 2026 is the most relevant announcement here. If achieved, these targets could support future revenue growth, but the real test will be whether SalMar can deliver these volumes without cost overruns or biological setbacks, a critical concern for investors watching operational trends and sector risks.

However, even with increased harvest expectations, investors should be mindful of unpredictable biological production events that can quickly shift margin trends…

Read the full narrative on SalMar (it's free!)

SalMar's narrative projects NOK35.7 billion revenue and NOK8.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 12.6% yearly revenue growth and a NOK7.0 billion earnings increase from the current NOK1.1 billion.

Uncover how SalMar's forecasts yield a NOK592.50 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five individual fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from NOK 420 to NOK 1,652.93 per share. With this range in mind, keep a close eye on ongoing operational risks that could affect SalMar’s ability to turn higher volumes into sustained profit, these varied viewpoints highlight the importance of exploring multiple perspectives on the stock.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on SalMar - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own SalMar Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your SalMar research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free SalMar research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate SalMar's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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