At €3.45, Is It Time To Put PostNL N.V. (AMS:PNL) On Your Watch List?

PostNL N.V. (AMS:PNL), is not the largest company out there, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the ENXTAM over the last few months, increasing to €4.00 at one point, and dropping to the lows of €3.45. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether PostNL's current trading price of €3.45 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at PostNL’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

View our latest analysis for PostNL

What is PostNL worth?

Good news, investors! PostNL is still a bargain right now according to my price multiple model, which compares the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that PostNL’s ratio of 5.54x is below its peer average of 16.43x, which indicates the stock is trading at a lower price compared to the Logistics industry. However, given that PostNL’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What kind of growth will PostNL generate?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of PostNL, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? Although PNL is currently trading below the industry PE ratio, the adverse prospect of negative growth brings about some degree of risk. Consider whether you want to increase your portfolio exposure to PNL, or whether diversifying into another stock may be a better move for your total risk and return.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on PNL for some time, but hesitant on making the leap, I recommend you research further into the stock. Given its current price multiple, now is a great time to make a decision. But keep in mind the risks that come with negative growth prospects in the future.

In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. Be aware that PostNL is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis and 2 of those shouldn't be ignored...

If you are no longer interested in PostNL, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.