Stock Analysis

Read This Before Considering Heineken N.V. (AMS:HEIA) For Its Upcoming €1.04 Dividend

ENXTAM:HEIA
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Regular readers will know that we love our dividends at Simply Wall St, which is why it's exciting to see Heineken N.V. (AMS:HEIA) is about to trade ex-dividend in the next 4 days. The ex-dividend date is one business day before the record date, which is the cut-off date for shareholders to be present on the company's books to be eligible for a dividend payment. The ex-dividend date is an important date to be aware of as any purchase of the stock made on or after this date might mean a late settlement that doesn't show on the record date. This means that investors who purchase Heineken's shares on or after the 29th of April will not receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 7th of May.

The company's next dividend payment will be €1.04 per share, on the back of last year when the company paid a total of €1.73 to shareholders. Based on the last year's worth of payments, Heineken has a trailing yield of 1.9% on the current stock price of €90.68. We love seeing companies pay a dividend, but it's also important to be sure that laying the golden eggs isn't going to kill our golden goose! So we need to check whether the dividend payments are covered, and if earnings are growing.

View our latest analysis for Heineken

Dividends are typically paid from company earnings. If a company pays more in dividends than it earned in profit, then the dividend could be unsustainable. That's why it's good to see Heineken paying out a modest 42% of its earnings. Yet cash flows are even more important than profits for assessing a dividend, so we need to see if the company generated enough cash to pay its distribution. Over the last year, it paid out more than three-quarters (76%) of its free cash flow generated, which is fairly high and may be starting to limit reinvestment in the business.

It's encouraging to see that the dividend is covered by both profit and cash flow. This generally suggests the dividend is sustainable, as long as earnings don't drop precipitously.

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

historic-dividend
ENXTAM:HEIA Historic Dividend April 24th 2024

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Stocks in companies that generate sustainable earnings growth often make the best dividend prospects, as it is easier to lift the dividend when earnings are rising. If earnings decline and the company is forced to cut its dividend, investors could watch the value of their investment go up in smoke. This is why it's a relief to see Heineken earnings per share are up 4.0% per annum over the last five years. A payout ratio of 42% looks like a tacit signal from management that reinvestment opportunities in the business are low. In line with limited earnings growth in recent years, this is not the most appealing combination.

Another key way to measure a company's dividend prospects is by measuring its historical rate of dividend growth. Heineken has delivered an average of 6.9% per year annual increase in its dividend, based on the past 10 years of dividend payments. We're glad to see dividends rising alongside earnings over a number of years, which may be a sign the company intends to share the growth with shareholders.

The Bottom Line

From a dividend perspective, should investors buy or avoid Heineken? Earnings per share have been growing at a steady rate, and Heineken paid out less than half its profits and more than half its free cash flow as dividends over the last year. To summarise, Heineken looks okay on this analysis, although it doesn't appear a stand-out opportunity.

On that note, you'll want to research what risks Heineken is facing. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 2 warning signs with Heineken and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

A common investing mistake is buying the first interesting stock you see. Here you can find a full list of high-yield dividend stocks.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Heineken is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.