Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Tenaga Nasional Berhad's (KLSE:TENAGA) Shares

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 23.1x Tenaga Nasional Berhad (KLSE:TENAGA) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Malaysia have P/E ratios under 15x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

Recent times have been advantageous for Tenaga Nasional Berhad as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings performance will continue. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Tenaga Nasional Berhad

Keen to find out how analysts think Tenaga Nasional Berhad's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Tenaga Nasional Berhad's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 18%. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 12% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 12% per annum during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 13% growth per year, the company is positioned for a comparable earnings result.

In light of this, it's curious that Tenaga Nasional Berhad's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Tenaga Nasional Berhad's P/E?

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Tenaga Nasional Berhad currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is only in line with the wider market. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Tenaga Nasional Berhad (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Tenaga Nasional Berhad. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.