Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Ewein Berhad (KLSE:EWEIN)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Ewein Berhad is RM1.10 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of RM1.04 suggests Ewein Berhad is potentially trading close to its fair value
• Peers of Ewein Berhad are currently trading on average at a 138% premium

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Ewein Berhad (KLSE:EWEIN) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Ewein Berhad

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (MYR, Millions)	RM26.8m	RM26.7m	RM26.9m	RM27.3m	RM27.9m	RM28.6m	RM29.5m	RM30.4m	RM31.4m	RM32.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -2.08%	Est @ -0.39%	Est @ 0.79%	Est @ 1.61%	Est @ 2.19%	Est @ 2.60%	Est @ 2.88%	Est @ 3.08%	Est @ 3.22%	Est @ 3.31%
Present Value (MYR, Millions) Discounted @ 11%	RM24.2	RM21.7	RM19.8	RM18.1	RM16.7	RM15.5	RM14.4	RM13.4	RM12.4	RM11.6

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = RM168m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 11%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = RM32m× (1 + 3.5%) ÷ (11%– 3.5%) = RM461m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= RM461m÷ ( 1 + 11%)¹⁰= RM165m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is RM333m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of RM1.0, the company appears about fair value at a 5.7% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Ewein Berhad as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.147. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Ewein Berhad, there are three additional aspects you should look at:

1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Ewein Berhad (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the KLSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.