A Look At The Fair Value Of Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (BMV:ASURB)

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (BMV:ASURB) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S. A. B. de C. V

Step by step through the calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Levered FCF (MX$, Millions)	Mex$7.98b	Mex$8.72b	Mex$9.40b	Mex$10.1b	Mex$10.9b	Mex$11.7b	Mex$12.5b	Mex$13.4b	Mex$14.4b	Mex$15.4b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x2	Est @ 7.79%	Est @ 7.58%	Est @ 7.44%	Est @ 7.34%	Est @ 7.27%	Est @ 7.22%	Est @ 7.18%	Est @ 7.16%
Present Value (MX$, Millions) Discounted @ 14%	Mex$7.0k	Mex$6.8k	Mex$6.4k	Mex$6.1k	Mex$5.7k	Mex$5.4k	Mex$5.1k	Mex$4.8k	Mex$4.6k	Mex$4.3k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = Mex$56b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (7.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 14%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₁ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = Mex$15b× (1 + 7.1%) ÷ (14%– 7.1%) = Mex$255b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= Mex$255b÷ ( 1 + 14%)¹⁰= Mex$72b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is Mex$128b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of Mex$391, the company appears about fair value at a 8.2% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S. A. B. de C. V as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 14%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.130. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S. A. B. de C. V, we've put together three essential items you should further research:

1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S. A. B. de C. V you should know about.
2. Future Earnings: How does ASUR B's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the BMV every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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