Optimistic Investors Push Axtel, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:AXTELCPO) Shares Up 26% But Growth Is Lacking

Axtel, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:AXTELCPO) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 26% after a shaky period beforehand. The last month tops off a massive increase of 156% in the last year.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Axtel. de's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.6x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Telecom industry in Mexico, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.9x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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See our latest analysis for Axtel. de

How Axtel. de Has Been Performing

Axtel. de certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue more than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is moderate because investors think this strong revenue performance might be about to tail off. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Keen to find out how analysts think Axtel. de's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Axtel. de's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 11% gain to the company's revenues. Revenue has also lifted 14% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has actually done a good job of growing revenue over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the dual analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 5.0% over the next year. With the industry predicted to deliver 13% growth, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Axtel. de's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Axtel. de's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

When you consider that Axtel. de's revenue growth estimates are fairly muted compared to the broader industry, it's easy to see why we consider it unexpected to be trading at its current P/S ratio. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. Circumstances like this present a risk to current and prospective investors who may see share prices fall if the low revenue growth impacts the sentiment.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Axtel. de (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to be mindful of.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.