Are Arca Continental, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:AC) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Arca Continental, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:AC) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Arca Continental. de

Step by step through the calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Levered FCF (MX$, Millions)	Mex$12.4b	Mex$13.2b	Mex$10.9b	Mex$11.6b	Mex$11.5b	Mex$11.6b	Mex$12.0b	Mex$12.6b	Mex$13.2b	Mex$14.0b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x5	Analyst x5	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ -0.75%	Est @ 1.61%	Est @ 3.25%	Est @ 4.41%	Est @ 5.22%	Est @ 5.78%
Present Value (MX$, Millions) Discounted @ 12%	Mex$11.1k	Mex$10.5k	Mex$7.8k	Mex$7.4k	Mex$6.5k	Mex$5.9k	Mex$5.5k	Mex$5.1k	Mex$4.8k	Mex$4.5k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = Mex$69b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 7.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 12%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₁ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = Mex$14b× (1 + 7.1%) ÷ (12%– 7.1%) = Mex$312b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= Mex$312b÷ ( 1 + 12%)¹⁰= Mex$101b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is Mex$170b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of Mex$127, the company appears potentially overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Arca Continental. de as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 12%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.839. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value lower than the current share price? For Arca Continental. de, there are three essential aspects you should assess:

1. Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Arca Continental. de .
2. Future Earnings: How does AC *'s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Mexican stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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