A Look At The Fair Value Of Japan Airport Terminal Co., Ltd. (TSE:9706)

Key Insights

• Japan Airport Terminal's estimated fair value is JP¥5,580 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• With JP¥5,472 share price, Japan Airport Terminal appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• Analyst price target for 9706 is JP¥7,367, which is 32% above our fair value estimate

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Japan Airport Terminal Co., Ltd. (TSE:9706) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Japan Airport Terminal

The Calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (¥, Millions)	JP¥17.5b	JP¥23.4b	JP¥25.4b	JP¥38.0b	JP¥42.7b	JP¥46.4b	JP¥49.3b	JP¥51.4b	JP¥53.1b	JP¥54.2b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x4	Analyst x4	Analyst x2	Est @ 12.39%	Est @ 8.73%	Est @ 6.17%	Est @ 4.38%	Est @ 3.13%	Est @ 2.25%
Present Value (¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.7%	JP¥16.1k	JP¥19.8k	JP¥19.7k	JP¥27.2k	JP¥28.1k	JP¥28.1k	JP¥27.5k	JP¥26.4k	JP¥25.1k	JP¥23.6k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = JP¥242b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = JP¥54b× (1 + 0.2%) ÷ (8.7%– 0.2%) = JP¥640b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= JP¥640b÷ ( 1 + 8.7%)¹⁰= JP¥278b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is JP¥520b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of JP¥5.5k, the company appears about fair value at a 1.9% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Japan Airport Terminal as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.509. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Japan Airport Terminal

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Japan Airport Terminal, we've compiled three additional items you should look at:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Japan Airport Terminal that you should be aware of.
2. Future Earnings: How does 9706's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Japanese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.