AEON Mall Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that AEON Mall Co., Ltd. (TSE:8905) released its half-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.4% to JP¥2,064 in the past week. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at JP¥222b, although statutory earnings per share came in 18% below what the analysts expected, at JP¥39.89 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for AEON Mall

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from AEON Mall's five analysts is for revenues of JP¥445.1b in 2025. This reflects an okay 2.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 5.5% to JP¥78.75 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥444.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥81.34 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 5.1% to JP¥2,064, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AEON Mall at JP¥2,500 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,840. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await AEON Mall shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that AEON Mall's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.8% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while AEON Mall's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for AEON Mall. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AEON Mall going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for AEON Mall that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.