Earnings Beat: Astellas Pharma Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Astellas Pharma Inc. (TSE:4503) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. Astellas Pharma delivered a significant beat to revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations, hitting JP¥473b-15% above indicated-andJP¥21.00-106% above forecasts- respectively Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Astellas Pharma

Taking into account the latest results, Astellas Pharma's 15 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥1.70t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 129% to JP¥27.52. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.69t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥32.22 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,825, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Astellas Pharma analyst has a price target of JP¥2,300 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,200. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Astellas Pharma's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.009% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 5.4% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Astellas Pharma.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Astellas Pharma's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,825, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Astellas Pharma. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Astellas Pharma going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 4 warning signs for Astellas Pharma (2 don't sit too well with us!) that we have uncovered.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com