Asahi Kasei Corporation Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Investors in Asahi Kasei Corporation (TSE:3407) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.3% to close at JP¥1,269 following the release of its interim results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥1.5t were what the analysts expected, Asahi Kasei surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of JP¥34.27 per share, an impressive 36% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Asahi Kasei's twelve analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be JP¥3.08t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 4.7% to JP¥98.91 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥3.08t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥97.34 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Asahi Kasei

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥1,443. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Asahi Kasei analyst has a price target of JP¥1,800 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,050. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Asahi Kasei's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 7.7% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Asahi Kasei is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,443, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Asahi Kasei. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Asahi Kasei going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Asahi Kasei's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.