Japan Exchange Group, Inc. (TSE:8697) Third-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

Shareholders might have noticed that Japan Exchange Group, Inc. (TSE:8697) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.1% to JP¥1,651 in the past week. Revenues of JP¥40b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at JP¥14.09, missing estimates by 4.7%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Japan Exchange Group

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Japan Exchange Group's five analysts is for revenues of JP¥168.2b in 2026. This would reflect a reasonable 3.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 2.9% to JP¥60.53. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥168.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥60.56 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥1,760. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Japan Exchange Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥2,300 and the most bearish at JP¥1,410 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Japan Exchange Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 5.0% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Japan Exchange Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Japan Exchange Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Japan Exchange Group that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.