Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For ORIX Corporation (TSE:8591) After Its Annual Results

Investors in ORIX Corporation (TSE:8591) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.9% to close at JP¥3,368 following the release of its annual results. ORIX reported JP¥2.8t in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥299 beat expectations, being 3.9% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for ORIX

Following the latest results, ORIX's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥2.93t in 2025. This would be a reasonable 4.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 13% to JP¥340. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥3.01t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥338 in 2025. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

The average price target was steady at JP¥3,558even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ORIX at JP¥3,980 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥3,200. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the ORIX's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of ORIX'shistorical trends, as the 4.2% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 4.1% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 6.7% annually. So although ORIX is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,558, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for ORIX going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - ORIX has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.