Time To Worry? Analysts Are Downgrading Their AirTrip Corp. (TSE:6191) Outlook

The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for AirTrip Corp. (TSE:6191), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as the analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.

Following the downgrade, the current consensus from AirTrip's dual analysts is for revenues of JP¥26b in 2025 which - if met - would reflect an okay 2.2% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to reduce 6.4% to JP¥76.86 in the same period. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥30b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥115 in 2025. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a measurable cut to revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

See our latest analysis for AirTrip

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the JP¥1,400 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that AirTrip is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 2.2% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 3.0% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 6.6% annually for the foreseeable future. So although AirTrip's revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for AirTrip. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling in light of the downgrade but, with a serious decline expected this year, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of AirTrip.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have analyst estimates for AirTrip going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.