Stock Analysis

The total return for Sumitomo Forestry (TSE:1911) investors has risen faster than earnings growth over the last five years

Published
TSE:1911

Buying shares in the best businesses can build meaningful wealth for you and your family. And highest quality companies can see their share prices grow by huge amounts. Just think about the savvy investors who held Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. (TSE:1911) shares for the last five years, while they gained 309%. If that doesn't get you thinking about long term investing, we don't know what will. On the other hand, the stock price has retraced 5.1% in the last week.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 5.1%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Sumitomo Forestry

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Sumitomo Forestry achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 25% per year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 33% per year, over the same period. This suggests that market participants hold the company in higher regard, these days. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

TSE:1911 Earnings Per Share Growth October 13th 2024

It is of course excellent to see how Sumitomo Forestry has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at Sumitomo Forestry's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Sumitomo Forestry's TSR for the last 5 years was 385%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Sumitomo Forestry has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 75% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 37%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Sumitomo Forestry , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course Sumitomo Forestry may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.